Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios
We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-n...
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2017
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| In: |
Empirical economics
Year: 2016, Volume: 53, Issue: 1, Pages: 63-77 |
| ISSN: | 1435-8921 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x |
| Online Access: | Verlag, Volltext: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x Verlag, Volltext: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x 
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| Author Notes: | Jonas Dovern, Matthias Hartmann |
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