The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations
We propose a simple model of expectation formation with three distinct deviations from fully rational expectations. In particular, forecasters' expectations are sticky, extrapolate the most recent news about the current period, and depend on the lagged consensus forecast about the period being...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book/Monograph Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Heidelberg
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
29 Juli 2020
|
| Series: | Discussion paper series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
no. 686 |
| In: |
Discussion paper series (no. 686)
|
| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00028722 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Verlag, kostenfrei: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/28722/1/Hagenhoff_Lustenhouwer_2020_dp686.pdf Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00028722 Resolving-System, kostenfrei: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/235009 Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-287229 
|
| Author Notes: | Tim Hagenhoff and Joep Lustenhouwer |
| Summary: | We propose a simple model of expectation formation with three distinct deviations from fully rational expectations. In particular, forecasters' expectations are sticky, extrapolate the most recent news about the current period, and depend on the lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of Professional Forecaster as well as in the Livingston Survey, and that their magnitudes depend on the forecasting horizon. Moreover, in an over-identified econometric specification, we find that the restriction on coefficients implied by our model is always close to being satisfied and in most cases not rejected. We also stress the point that using the past consensus forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an own rational forecast to fail. |
|---|---|
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00028722 |