Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if subjects...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Dokumenttyp: | Buch/Monographie Arbeitspapier |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Bonn, Germany
IZA - Institute of Labor Economics
October 2020
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Discussion paper series / IZA
no. 13821 |
| In: |
Discussion paper series (no. 13821)
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, kostenfrei: http://ftp.iza.org/dp13821.pdf Verlag, kostenfrei: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13821/reverse-bayesianism-revising-beliefs-in-light-of-unforeseen-events Resolving-System, kostenfrei: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227348 
|
| Verfasserangaben: | Christoph K. Becker, Tigran Melkonyan, Eugenio Proto, Andis Sofianos, Stefan T. Trautmann |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000cam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1737730251 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20241126224616.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 201104s2020 gw |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10419/227348 |2 hdl | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1737730251 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1737730251 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 044 | |c XA-DE | ||
| 084 | |a 17 |2 sdnb | ||
| 084 | |a C11 |a C91 |a D83 |a D84 |2 jelc | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Becker, Christoph |d 1991- |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1188757245 |0 (DE-627)1667671219 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events |c Christoph K. Becker, Tigran Melkonyan, Eugenio Proto, Andis Sofianos, Stefan T. Trautmann |
| 264 | 1 | |a Bonn, Germany |b IZA - Institute of Labor Economics |c October 2020 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) |b Illustrationen | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Discussion paper series / IZA |v no. 13821 | |
| 520 | |a Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if subjects update their beliefs in a way that is consistent "reverse Bayesian", which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants do not systematically deviate from reverse Bayesianism, but they do not seem to expect an unknown event when this is reasonably unforeseeable, in two pre-registered experiments that entail unforeseen events. We argue that participants deviate less from the reverse Bayesian updating than from the usual Bayesian updating. We provide further evidence on the moderators of belief updating. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a reverse Bayesianism |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a unforeseen |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a unawareness |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian Updating |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 655 | 4 | |0 (DE-206)34 |a Graue Literatur |5 DE-206 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Melkonyan, Tigran A. |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)171894812 |0 (DE-627)361525508 |0 (DE-576)132650444 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Proto, Eugenio |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1054732663 |0 (DE-627)79198446X |0 (DE-576)410459232 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sofianos, Andis |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1059080923 |0 (DE-627)797940006 |0 (DE-576)415096820 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Trautmann, Stefan T. |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)136216633 |0 (DE-627)577224271 |0 (DE-576)300901135 |4 aut | |
| 810 | 2 | |a Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit |t Discussion paper series |v no. 13821 |9 13821 |w (DE-627)369870360 |w (DE-576)281231559 |w (DE-600)2120053-1 |x 2365-9793 |7 am | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://ftp.iza.org/dp13821.pdf |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13821/reverse-bayesianism-revising-beliefs-in-light-of-unforeseen-events |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227348 |x Resolving-System |z kostenfrei |
| 951 | |a BO | ||
| 992 | |a 20210726 | ||
| 993 | |a WorkingPaper | ||
| 994 | |a 2020 | ||
| 998 | |g 136216633 |a Trautmann, Stefan T. |m 136216633:Trautmann, Stefan T. |d 180000 |d 181000 |e 180000PT136216633 |e 181000PT136216633 |k 0/180000/ |k 1/180000/181000/ |p 5 |y j | ||
| 998 | |g 1188757245 |a Becker, Christoph |m 1188757245:Becker, Christoph |d 180000 |d 181000 |e 180000PB1188757245 |e 181000PB1188757245 |k 0/180000/ |k 1/180000/181000/ |p 1 |x j | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN1737730251 |e 395791860X | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| JSO | |a {"name":{"displayForm":["Christoph K. Becker, Tigran Melkonyan, Eugenio Proto, Andis Sofianos, Stefan T. Trautmann"]},"language":["eng"],"physDesc":[{"extent":"1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten)","noteIll":"Illustrationen"}],"relMultPart":[{"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"serial"},"disp":"Discussion paper series / IZA","origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Bonn","dateIssuedKey":"1998","publisher":"IZA","dateIssuedDisp":"1998-"}],"note":["Gesehen am 01.09.2021"],"pubHistory":["No. 1 (1998)-"],"title":[{"title":"Discussion paper series / IZA","title_sort":"Discussion paper series / IZA"}],"id":{"hdl":["10419/41"],"zdb":["2120053-1"],"issn":["2365-9793"],"eki":["369870360"]},"recId":"369870360","name":{"displayForm":["Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit"]},"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"corporate":[{"role":"aut","display":"Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit"}],"part":{"number_sort":["13821"],"number":["no. 13821"]},"dispAlt":"Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit: Discussion paper series","titleAlt":[{"title":"IZA discussion paper series"},{"title":"Discussion papers / IZA"},{"title":"IZA DP"},{"title":"Discussion paper / IZA"},{"title":"IZA discussion paper"}],"language":["eng"]}],"recId":"1737730251","id":{"hdl":["10419/227348"],"eki":["1737730251"]},"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Bonn, Germany","dateIssuedDisp":"October 2020","publisher":"IZA - Institute of Labor Economics","dateIssuedKey":"2020"}],"title":[{"title":"Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events","title_sort":"Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events"}],"person":[{"given":"Christoph","role":"aut","display":"Becker, Christoph","family":"Becker"},{"role":"aut","given":"Tigran A.","display":"Melkonyan, Tigran A.","family":"Melkonyan"},{"family":"Proto","display":"Proto, Eugenio","role":"aut","given":"Eugenio"},{"family":"Sofianos","display":"Sofianos, Andis","role":"aut","given":"Andis"},{"given":"Stefan T.","role":"aut","display":"Trautmann, Stefan T.","family":"Trautmann"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"book"}} | ||
| SRT | |a BECKERCHRIREVERSEBAY2020 | ||