COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures
Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25th January. By 4th February, public health me...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Dokumenttyp: | Article (Journal) |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
28 February 2020
|
| In: |
Journal of travel medicine
Year: 2020, Jahrgang: 27, Heft: 3, Pages: 1-7 |
| ISSN: | 1708-8305 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/jtm/taaa030 |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa030 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa030/5766334 
|
| Verfasserangaben: | J Rocklöv PhD, H Sjödin, PhD, and A Wilder-Smith MD |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1752309855 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230427020433.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210324s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1093/jtm/taaa030 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1752309855 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1752309855 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1341401164 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 33 |2 sdnb | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Rocklöv, Joacim |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1162960965 |0 (DE-627)1027050808 |0 (DE-576)507703707 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship |b estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures |c J Rocklöv PhD, H Sjödin, PhD, and A Wilder-Smith MD |
| 246 | 3 | 3 | |a COVID-nineteen outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship |
| 264 | 1 | |c 28 February 2020 | |
| 300 | |a 7 | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Gesehen am 24.03.2021 | ||
| 520 | |a Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25th January. By 4th February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20th February, 619 of 3700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive.We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using SEIR models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship.The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time.The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Sjödin, Henrik |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1208662066 |0 (DE-627)1695010949 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wilder-Smith, Annelies |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1064971458 |0 (DE-627)815377339 |0 (DE-576)186940998 |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Journal of travel medicine |d Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1994 |g 27(2020), 3 vom: Apr., Seite 1-7 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)34190760X |w (DE-600)2070527-X |w (DE-576)26347027X |x 1708-8305 |7 nnas |a COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:27 |g year:2020 |g number:3 |g month:04 |g pages:1-7 |g extent:7 |a COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa030 |x Verlag |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa030/5766334 |x Verlag |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 992 | |a 20210324 | ||
| 993 | |a Article | ||
| 994 | |a 2020 | ||
| 998 | |g 1064971458 |a Wilder-Smith, Annelies |m 1064971458:Wilder-Smith, Annelies |d 910000 |d 912800 |d 50000 |e 910000PW1064971458 |e 912800PW1064971458 |e 50000PW1064971458 |k 0/910000/ |k 1/910000/912800/ |k 0/50000/ |p 3 |y j | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN1752309855 |e 3893569448 | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| SER | |a journal | ||
| JSO | |a {"origin":[{"dateIssuedKey":"2020","dateIssuedDisp":"28 February 2020"}],"id":{"eki":["1752309855"],"doi":["10.1093/jtm/taaa030"]},"person":[{"given":"Joacim","family":"Rocklöv","role":"aut","display":"Rocklöv, Joacim"},{"given":"Henrik","role":"aut","display":"Sjödin, Henrik","family":"Sjödin"},{"family":"Wilder-Smith","role":"aut","display":"Wilder-Smith, Annelies","given":"Annelies"}],"name":{"displayForm":["J Rocklöv PhD, H Sjödin, PhD, and A Wilder-Smith MD"]},"title":[{"subtitle":"estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures","title_sort":"COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship","title":"COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship"}],"language":["eng"],"titleAlt":[{"title":"COVID-nineteen outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"article-journal"},"relHost":[{"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"periodical"},"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"recId":"34190760X","note":["Gesehen am 10.02.2020","Fortsetzung der Druck-Ausgabe"],"part":{"pages":"1-7","text":"27(2020), 3 vom: Apr., Seite 1-7","year":"2020","volume":"27","extent":"7","issue":"3"},"id":{"issn":["1708-8305"],"eki":["34190760X"],"zdb":["2070527-X"],"doi":["10.1111/(ISSN)1708-8305"]},"origin":[{"dateIssuedDisp":"1994-","dateIssuedKey":"1994","publisherPlace":"Oxford ; Hamilton, Ont. ; Oxford [u.a.] ; Oxford [u.a.]","publisher":"Oxford University Press ; Decker Periodicals ; Blackwell Publ. ; Wiley-Blackwell"}],"name":{"displayForm":["official publication of the International Society of Travel Medicine and the Asia Pacific Travel Health Association"]},"disp":"COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasuresJournal of travel medicine","title":[{"title":"Journal of travel medicine","title_sort":"Journal of travel medicine"}],"language":["eng"],"pubHistory":["1.1994 -"]}],"recId":"1752309855","physDesc":[{"extent":"7 S."}],"note":["Gesehen am 24.03.2021"]} | ||
| SRT | |a ROCKLOEVJOCOVID19OUT2820 | ||