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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations

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This paper proposes a two-step procedure in order to identify belief shocks—shocks to expectations about the current state of the economy. First, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to measure nowcast errors about contemporaneous output growth. Second, we extract belief shocks from nowcast...

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Main Authors: Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author)
Format: Article (Journal)
Language:English
Published: November 30 2021
In: The review of economics and statistics
Year: 2021, Volume: 103, Issue: 5, Pages: 905-921
ISSN:1530-9142
DOI:10.1162/rest_a_00949
Subjects:
1970-2015
Online Access:Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00949
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Author Notes:Zeno Enders, Michael Kleemann, Gernot J. Müller
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations by Enders, Zeno (Author) , Kleemann, Michael (Author) , Müller, Gernot J. (Author) ,


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