Comparing density forecasts using threshold- and quantile-weighted scoring rules
We propose a method for comparing density forecasts that is based on weighted versions of the continuous ranked probability score. The weighting emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable’s range, while retaining propriety, as opposed to a recently developed weight...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2011
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| In: |
Journal of business & economic statistics
Year: 2011, Volume: 29, Issue: 3, Pages: 411-422 |
| ISSN: | 1537-2707 |
| DOI: | 10.1198/jbes.2010.08110 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2010.08110 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jbes.2010.08110 
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| Author Notes: | Tilmann Gneiting, Roopesh Ranjan |
| Summary: | We propose a method for comparing density forecasts that is based on weighted versions of the continuous ranked probability score. The weighting emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable’s range, while retaining propriety, as opposed to a recently developed weighted likelihood ratio test, which can be hedged. Threshold- and quantile-based decompositions of the continuous ranked probability score can be illustrated graphically and provide insight into the strengths and deficiencies of a forecasting method. We illustrate the use of the test and graphical tools in case studies on the Bank of England’s density forecasts of quarterly inflation rates in the United Kingdom, and probabilistic predictions of wind resources in the Pacific Northwest. |
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| Item Description: | Elektronische Reproduktion der Druck-Ausgabe Published online: 01 Jan 2012 Gesehen am 27.06.2022 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 1537-2707 |
| DOI: | 10.1198/jbes.2010.08110 |