How effective is carbon pricing?: A machine learning approach to policy evaluation
While carbon taxes are generally seen as a rational policy response to climate change, knowledge about their performance from an ex-post perspective is still limited. This paper analyzes the emissions and cost impacts of the UK CPS, a carbon tax levied on all fossil-fired power plants. To overcome t...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Dokumenttyp: | Article (Journal) |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
March 2022
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| In: |
Journal of environmental economics and management
Year: 2022, Jahrgang: 112, Pages: 1-28 |
| ISSN: | 1096-0449 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102589 |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102589 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069621001339 
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| Verfasserangaben: | Jan Abrell, Mirjam Kosch, Sebastian Rausch |
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| 520 | |a While carbon taxes are generally seen as a rational policy response to climate change, knowledge about their performance from an ex-post perspective is still limited. This paper analyzes the emissions and cost impacts of the UK CPS, a carbon tax levied on all fossil-fired power plants. To overcome the problem of a missing control group, we propose a policy evaluation approach which leverages economic theory and machine learning for counterfactual prediction. Our results indicate that in the period 2013-2016 the CPS lowered emissions by 6.2 percent at an average cost of €18 per ton. We find substantial temporal heterogeneity in tax-induced impacts which stems from variation in relative fuel prices. An important implication for climate policy is that whether a higher carbon tax leads to higher emissions reductions and higher costs depends on relative fuel prices. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Carbon pricing | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Carbon tax | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate policy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cost and Environmental Effectiveness | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electricity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Emissions abatement | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Machine learning | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Policy evaluation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a UK Carbon Price Support | |
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