Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
Accurate weather benefit many key societal functions and activities, including agriculture, transportation, recreation, and basic human and infrastructural safety. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction models have been developed, in which multiple estimates of the curr...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Dokumenttyp: | Article (Journal) |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2011
|
| In: |
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Year: 2011, Jahrgang: 106, Heft: 496, Pages: 1291-1303 |
| ISSN: | 1537-274X |
| DOI: | 10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433 |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433
|
| Verfasserangaben: | William Kleiber, Adrian E. Raftery, and Tilmann Gneiting |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1814170529 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230710122710.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220811s2011 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1814170529 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1814170529 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1389793159 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 27 |2 sdnb | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Kleiber, William |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)126512566X |0 (DE-627)181417138X |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting |c William Kleiber, Adrian E. Raftery, and Tilmann Gneiting |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2011 | |
| 300 | |a 13 | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Elektronische Reproduktion der Druck-Ausgabe | ||
| 500 | |a Published online: 24 Jan 2012 | ||
| 500 | |a Gesehen am 11.08.2022 | ||
| 520 | |a Accurate weather benefit many key societal functions and activities, including agriculture, transportation, recreation, and basic human and infrastructural safety. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction models have been developed, in which multiple estimates of the current state of the atmosphere are used to generate probabilistic forecasts for future weather events. However, ensemble systems are uncalibrated and biased, and thus need to be statistically postprocessed. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a preferred way of doing this. Particularly for quantitative precipitation, biases and calibration errors depend critically on local terrain features. We introduce a geostatistical approach to modeling locally varying BMA parameters, as opposed to the extant method that holds parameters constant across the forecast domain. Degeneracies caused by enduring dry periods are overcome by Bayesian regularization and Laplace approximations. The new approach, called geostatistical model averaging (GMA), was applied to 48-hour-ahead forecasts of daily precipitation accumulation over the North American Pacific Northwest, using the eight-member University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble. GMA had better aggregate and local calibration than the extant technique, and was sharper on average. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian model averaging | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Calibration | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ensemble prediction system | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gaussian process | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Laplace approximation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Numerical weather prediction | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Probabilistic forecast | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Regularization | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Raftery, Adrian E. |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)17114810X |0 (DE-627)061319368 |0 (DE-576)131965301 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gneiting, Tilmann |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1019627484 |0 (DE-627)690974809 |0 (DE-576)358470323 |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |a American Statistical Association |t Journal of the American Statistical Association |d Abingdon : Taylor & Francis, 1922 |g 106(2011), 496, Seite 1291-1303 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)339869887 |w (DE-600)2064981-2 |w (DE-576)10311596X |x 1537-274X |7 nnas |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:106 |g year:2011 |g number:496 |g pages:1291-1303 |g extent:13 |a Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Druck-Ausgabe |a Kleiber, William |t Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting |d 2011 |w (DE-627)1628874074 |w (DE-576)35937123X |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433 |x Verlag |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 992 | |a 20220811 | ||
| 993 | |a Article | ||
| 994 | |a 2011 | ||
| 998 | |g 1019627484 |a Gneiting, Tilmann |m 1019627484:Gneiting, Tilmann |d 110000 |d 110200 |d 110000 |d 110400 |e 110000PG1019627484 |e 110200PG1019627484 |e 110000PG1019627484 |e 110400PG1019627484 |k 0/110000/ |k 1/110000/110200/ |k 0/110000/ |k 1/110000/110400/ |p 3 |y j | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN1814170529 |e 4178469517 | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| SER | |a journal | ||
| JSO | |a {"note":["Elektronische Reproduktion der Druck-Ausgabe","Published online: 24 Jan 2012","Gesehen am 11.08.2022"],"type":{"bibl":"article-journal","media":"Online-Ressource"},"recId":"1814170529","language":["eng"],"title":[{"title_sort":"Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting","title":"Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting"}],"person":[{"role":"aut","display":"Kleiber, William","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","given":"William","family":"Kleiber"},{"role":"aut","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"Raftery, Adrian E.","given":"Adrian E.","family":"Raftery"},{"given":"Tilmann","family":"Gneiting","role":"aut","display":"Gneiting, Tilmann","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"13 S."}],"relHost":[{"part":{"year":"2011","issue":"496","pages":"1291-1303","text":"106(2011), 496, Seite 1291-1303","volume":"106","extent":"13"},"titleAlt":[{"title":"JASA"}],"pubHistory":["18.1922/23 - ; auch mit durchgehender Nr.-Zählung"],"recId":"339869887","language":["eng"],"corporate":[{"roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"American Statistical Association","role":"aut"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"periodical"},"disp":"American Statistical AssociationJournal of the American Statistical Association","note":["Gesehen am 29.09.22"],"title":[{"subtitle":"JASA ; the premier journal of statistical science","title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association","title_sort":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"id":{"issn":["1537-274X"],"zdb":["2064981-2"],"eki":["339869887"]},"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Abingdon ; [Erscheinungsort nicht ermittelbar]","dateIssuedDisp":"1922-","publisher":"Taylor & Francis ; Assoc.","dateIssuedKey":"1922"}]}],"origin":[{"dateIssuedKey":"2011","dateIssuedDisp":"2011"}],"id":{"doi":["10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433"],"eki":["1814170529"]},"name":{"displayForm":["William Kleiber, Adrian E. Raftery, and Tilmann Gneiting"]}} | ||
| SRT | |a KLEIBERWILGEOSTATIST2011 | ||