The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies
An inductive, pattern-sensitive Bayesian logic (BL) is proposed as a normative and descriptive model for probability judgments about hypotheses involving probabilistic logical connectives. The model explains a specific class of frequency-based conjunction fallacies (CFs). It is suggested that the pa...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2 March 2011
|
| In: |
Journal of mathematical psychology
Year: 2011, Volume: 55, Issue: 2, Pages: 119-139 |
| ISSN: | 0022-2496 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022249610001422 
|
| Author Notes: | Momme von Sydow |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1827603569 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230710095617.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 221216s2011 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1827603569 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1827603569 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1389738787 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 11 |2 sdnb | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Sydow, Momme von |d 1967- |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)121553094 |0 (DE-627)08138324X |0 (DE-576)292768745 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies |c Momme von Sydow |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2 March 2011 | |
| 300 | |a 21 | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Gesehen am 16.12.2022 | ||
| 520 | |a An inductive, pattern-sensitive Bayesian logic (BL) is proposed as a normative and descriptive model for probability judgments about hypotheses involving probabilistic logical connectives. The model explains a specific class of frequency-based conjunction fallacies (CFs). It is suggested that the pattern probabilities calculated by BL may serve as a criterion of noisy-logical predication, resolving some paradoxes of predication. The model is developed for frequency information in 2×2 contingency tables. According to standard probability theory, a violation of the conjunction rule, P(A)≥P(A∧B) (e.g., P(ravens are black) ≥ P(ravens are black AND they can fly)), is always a fallacy. A frequentist interpretation of probability has exculpated participants from committing CFs when one is concerned with single events. Here a pattern-based Bayesian interpretation of probabilities of (noisy) dyadic logical predications is elaborated, predicting frequency-based but rational ‘CFs’. BL formalizes the probabilities of logical patterns, integrating over noise levels. BL, for instance, predicts double CFs, differential sample-size effects, and pattern sensitivity. Three experiments provide a first corroboration that BL is also an adequate empirical model to predict logical probability judgments based on 2×2 contingency tables. BL may shed light on the more general rationality debate. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Conjunction fallacy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Inductive logic | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Paradoxes of predication | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Probability judgments | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Rationality | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Journal of mathematical psychology |d Orlando, Fla. : Academic Press, 1964 |g 55(2011), 2 vom: Apr., Seite 119-139 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)270425713 |w (DE-600)1477252-8 |w (DE-576)104194111 |x 0022-2496 |7 nnas |a The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:55 |g year:2011 |g number:2 |g month:04 |g pages:119-139 |g extent:21 |a The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001 |x Verlag |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022249610001422 |x Verlag |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 992 | |a 20221216 | ||
| 993 | |a Article | ||
| 994 | |a 2011 | ||
| 998 | |g 121553094 |a Sydow, Momme von |m 121553094:Sydow, Momme von |p 1 |x j |y j | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN1827603569 |e 4233974699 | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| SER | |a journal | ||
| JSO | |a {"type":{"bibl":"article-journal","media":"Online-Ressource"},"note":["Gesehen am 16.12.2022"],"recId":"1827603569","language":["eng"],"person":[{"role":"aut","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"Sydow, Momme von","given":"Momme von","family":"Sydow"}],"title":[{"title":"The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies","title_sort":"Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallacies"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"21 S."}],"relHost":[{"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"id":{"issn":["0022-2496"],"eki":["270425713"],"zdb":["1477252-8"]},"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Orlando, Fla.","publisher":"Academic Press","dateIssuedKey":"1964","dateIssuedDisp":"1964-"}],"name":{"displayForm":["affiliated with the Society for Mathematical Psychology"]},"part":{"extent":"21","text":"55(2011), 2 vom: Apr., Seite 119-139","volume":"55","pages":"119-139","issue":"2","year":"2011"},"pubHistory":["1.1964 -"],"language":["eng"],"corporate":[{"role":"isb","roleDisplay":"Herausgebendes Organ","display":"Society for Mathematical Psychology"}],"recId":"270425713","note":["Gesehen am 30.05.08"],"disp":"The Bayesian logic of frequency-based conjunction fallaciesJournal of mathematical psychology","type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"periodical"},"title":[{"title_sort":"Journal of mathematical psychology","title":"Journal of mathematical psychology"}]}],"name":{"displayForm":["Momme von Sydow"]},"origin":[{"dateIssuedDisp":"2 March 2011","dateIssuedKey":"2011"}],"id":{"doi":["10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001"],"eki":["1827603569"]}} | ||
| SRT | |a SYDOWMOMMEBAYESIANLO2201 | ||