Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes
Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces r...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Dokumenttyp: | Buch/Monographie Arbeitspapier |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Nürnberg]
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics
[2023]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | FAU discussion papers in economics
no. 2023, 01 |
| In: |
FAU discussion papers in economics (no. 2023, 01)
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, kostenfrei: https://www.iwf.rw.fau.de/files/2023/01/01_2023.pdf Resolving-System, kostenfrei: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/268401 
|
| Verfasserangaben: | Christoph Becker, Peter Dürsch, Thomas Eife, Alexander Glas |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000cam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 183121248X | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230203062051.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 230117s2023 gw |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10419/268401 |2 hdl | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)183121248X | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP183121248X | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1360244121 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 044 | |c XA-DE | ||
| 084 | |a 17 |2 sdnb | ||
| 084 | |a D84 |a E31 |a E58 |2 jelc | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Becker, Christoph |d 1991- |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1188757245 |0 (DE-627)1667671219 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes |c Christoph Becker, Peter Dürsch, Thomas Eife, Alexander Glas |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Nürnberg] |b Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics |c [2023] | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) |b Illustrationen | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a FAU discussion papers in economics |v no. 2023, 01 | |
| 520 | |a Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open interval. This pile-up of probabilities negatively affects estimates of histogram moments and leads to a divergence between average expected inflation measured by probabilistic and point forecasts. The consistency of predictions can be improved by using an alternative design of the response scale that allows respondents to state more detailed beliefs for higher inflation ranges. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Probabilistic expectations |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a inflation |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a survey data |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 | |
| 655 | 4 | |0 (DE-206)34 |a Graue Literatur |5 DE-206 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dürsch, Peter |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1012813037 |0 (DE-627)662758633 |0 (DE-576)346253497 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Eife, Thomas A. |d 1971- |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)132136260 |0 (DE-627)518396142 |0 (DE-576)298964090 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Glas, Alexander |d 1986- |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1035326566 |0 (DE-627)747297940 |0 (DE-576)382935314 |4 aut | |
| 830 | 0 | |a FAU discussion papers in economics |v no. 2023, 01 |9 2023,1 |w (DE-627)856212709 |w (DE-576)466228112 |w (DE-600)2851451-8 |x 1867-6707 |7 am | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.iwf.rw.fau.de/files/2023/01/01_2023.pdf |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://hdl.handle.net/10419/268401 |x Resolving-System |z kostenfrei |
| 951 | |a BO | ||
| 992 | |a 20230627 | ||
| 993 | |a WorkingPaper | ||
| 994 | |a 2023 | ||
| 998 | |g 132136260 |a Eife, Thomas A. |m 132136260:Eife, Thomas A. |d 180000 |d 181000 |e 180000PE132136260 |e 181000PE132136260 |k 0/180000/ |k 1/180000/181000/ |p 3 | ||
| 998 | |g 1188757245 |a Becker, Christoph |m 1188757245:Becker, Christoph |d 180000 |d 181000 |e 180000PB1188757245 |e 181000PB1188757245 |k 0/180000/ |k 1/180000/181000/ |p 1 |x j | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN183121248X |e 4343841502 | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| JSO | |a {"id":{"hdl":["10419/268401"],"eki":["183121248X"]},"recId":"183121248X","name":{"displayForm":["Christoph Becker, Peter Dürsch, Thomas Eife, Alexander Glas"]},"language":["eng"],"type":{"bibl":"book","media":"Online-Ressource"},"relMultPart":[{"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"note":["Gesehen am 19.12.2022"],"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Erlangen","dateIssuedKey":"2016","publisher":"FAU","dateIssuedDisp":"2016-"}],"pubHistory":["2016, no. 1-"],"id":{"zdb":["2851451-8"],"eki":["856212709"],"issn":["1867-6707"],"hdl":["10419/29544"]},"recId":"856212709","name":{"displayForm":["Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften"]},"title":[{"title_sort":"FAU discussion papers in economics","title":"FAU discussion papers in economics"}],"dispAlt":"FAU discussion papers in economics","part":{"number_sort":["2023,1"],"number":["no. 2023, 01"]},"corporate":[{"role":"isb","display":"Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg"}],"language":["eng"],"disp":"FAU discussion papers in economics","type":{"bibl":"serial","media":"Online-Ressource"}}],"title":[{"title_sort":"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes","title":"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes"}],"person":[{"display":"Becker, Christoph","role":"aut","given":"Christoph","family":"Becker"},{"given":"Peter","family":"Dürsch","display":"Dürsch, Peter","role":"aut"},{"role":"aut","display":"Eife, Thomas A.","given":"Thomas A.","family":"Eife"},{"family":"Glas","given":"Alexander","display":"Glas, Alexander","role":"aut"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)","noteIll":"Illustrationen"}],"origin":[{"dateIssuedDisp":"[2023]","publisher":"Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics","dateIssuedKey":"2023","publisherPlace":"[Nürnberg]"}]} | ||
| SRT | |a BECKERCHRIHOUSEHOLDS2023 | ||