Buchumschlag

Measuring inflation expectations: how the response scale shapes density forecasts

Weitere Versionen anzeigen (1)

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting, comp...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Becker, Christoph (VerfasserIn) , Dürsch, Peter (VerfasserIn) , Eife, Thomas A. (VerfasserIn)
Dokumenttyp: Book/Monograph Arbeitspapier
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Heidelberg Heidelberg University, Department of Economics 13 Jan. 2023
Schriftenreihe:AWI discussion paper series no. 723 (January 2023)
In: AWI discussion paper series (no. 723 (January 2023))

DOI:10.11588/heidok.00032677
Schlagworte:
Graue Literatur
Online-Zugang:Verlag, kostenfrei: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/32677/1/Becker_Duersch_Eife_2023_dp723.pdf
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00032677
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775
Langzeitarchivierung Nationalbibliothek, kostenfrei: https://d-nb.info/1278155716/34
Verlag, kostenfrei: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/32677
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278301
Volltext
Verfasserangaben:Christoph Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a2200000 c 4500
001 1832207331
003 DE-627
005 20241027100825.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 230125s2023 gw |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775  |2 urn 
024 7 |a 10.11588/heidok.00032677  |2 doi 
024 7 |a 10419/278301  |2 hdl 
035 |a (DE-627)1832207331 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1832207331 
035 |a (OCoLC)1365361558 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
044 |c XA-DE 
082 0 4 |a 330  |q DE-101 
084 |a 17  |2 sdnb 
084 |a 17  |2 sdnb 
084 |a C83  |a D84  |a E31  |2 jelc 
100 1 |a Becker, Christoph  |d 1991-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1188757245  |0 (DE-627)1667671219  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Measuring inflation expectations  |b how the response scale shapes density forecasts  |c Christoph Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife 
264 1 |a Heidelberg  |b Heidelberg University, Department of Economics  |c 13 Jan. 2023 
300 |a 1 Online-Ressource (41 Seiten)  |b Diagramme 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
490 1 |a AWI discussion paper series  |v no. 723 (January 2023) 
520 |a In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation. 
650 4 |a Inflation  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a density forecast  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a experiment  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
655 4 |0 (DE-206)34  |a Graue Literatur  |5 DE-206 
700 1 |a Dürsch, Peter  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1012813037  |0 (DE-627)662758633  |0 (DE-576)346253497  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Eife, Thomas A.  |d 1971-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)132136260  |0 (DE-627)518396142  |0 (DE-576)298964090  |4 aut 
830 0 |a AWI discussion paper series  |v no. 723 (January 2023)  |9 723  |w (DE-627)1741200679  |w (DE-600)3046500-X  |7 am 
856 4 0 |u http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/32677/1/Becker_Duersch_Eife_2023_dp723.pdf  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00032677  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://d-nb.info/1278155716/34  |x Langzeitarchivierung Nationalbibliothek  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/32677  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278301  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei 
951 |a BO 
992 |a 20230206 
993 |a WorkingPaper 
994 |a 2023 
998 |g 132136260  |a Eife, Thomas A.  |m 132136260:Eife, Thomas A.  |d 180000  |d 181000  |e 180000PE132136260  |e 181000PE132136260  |k 0/180000/  |k 1/180000/181000/  |p 3  |y j 
998 |g 1012813037  |a Dürsch, Peter  |m 1012813037:Dürsch, Peter  |p 2 
998 |g 1188757245  |a Becker, Christoph  |m 1188757245:Becker, Christoph  |d 180000  |d 181000  |e 180000PB1188757245  |e 181000PB1188757245  |k 0/180000/  |k 1/180000/181000/  |p 1  |x j 
999 |a KXP-PPN1832207331  |e 4267590311 
BIB |a Y 
JSO |a {"id":{"hdl":["10419/278301"],"uri":["urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775"],"doi":["10.11588/heidok.00032677"],"eki":["1832207331"]},"title":[{"title_sort":"Measuring inflation expectations","title":"Measuring inflation expectations","subtitle":"how the response scale shapes density forecasts"}],"origin":[{"dateIssuedDisp":"13 Jan. 2023","publisherPlace":"Heidelberg","dateIssuedKey":"2023","publisher":"Heidelberg University, Department of Economics"}],"recId":"1832207331","language":["eng"],"physDesc":[{"extent":"1 Online-Ressource (41 Seiten)","noteIll":"Diagramme"}],"relMultPart":[{"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"note":["Gesehen am 20.11.23"],"pubHistory":["No. 692 (October 2020)-"],"dispAlt":"AWI discussion paper series","name":{"displayForm":["University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics"]},"id":{"zdb":["3046500-X"],"hdl":["10419/127204"],"eki":["1741200679"]},"recId":"1741200679","corporate":[{"roleDisplay":"Herausgebendes Organ","display":"Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften","role":"isb"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"serial"},"title":[{"title":"AWI discussion paper series","title_sort":"AWI discussion paper series"}],"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"[Heidelberg]","dateIssuedDisp":"[2020]-","publisher":"[University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics]"}],"disp":"AWI discussion paper series","part":{"number":["no. 723 (January 2023)"],"number_sort":["723"]},"language":["eng"]}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"book"},"name":{"displayForm":["Christoph Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife"]},"person":[{"roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","role":"aut","display":"Becker, Christoph","given":"Christoph","family":"Becker"},{"display":"Dürsch, Peter","role":"aut","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","family":"Dürsch","given":"Peter"},{"role":"aut","display":"Eife, Thomas A.","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","given":"Thomas A.","family":"Eife"}]} 
SRT |a BECKERCHRIMEASURINGI1320 

Ähnliche Einträge