Cover Image

Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes

Show other versions (1)

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we s...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Becker, Christoph (Author) , Dürsch, Peter (Author) , Eife, Thomas A. (Author) , Glas, Alexander (Author)
Format: Book/Monograph Working Paper
Language:English
Published: Mannheim, Germany ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research [2023]
Series:Discussion paper no. 23, 072 (12/2023)
In: Discussion paper (no. 23, 072 (12/2023))

Subjects:
Graue Literatur
Online Access:Verlag, kostenfrei: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/66729
Verlag, kostenfrei: https://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp23072.pdf
Verlag, kostenfrei: https://www.zew.de/publikationen/households-probabilistic-inflation-expectations-in-high-inflation-regimes-1
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/283596
Get full text
Author Notes:Christoph Karl Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife, and Alexander Glas

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a2200000 c 4500
001 1880369516
003 DE-627
005 20240402142846.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 240208s2023 gw |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-66729  |2 urn 
024 7 |a 10419/283596  |2 hdl 
035 |a (DE-627)1880369516 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1880369516 
035 |a (OCoLC)1422544474 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
044 |c XA-DE 
084 |a 17  |2 sdnb 
084 |a D84  |a $aE31  |a E58  |2 jelc 
100 1 |a Becker, Christoph  |d 1991-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1188757245  |0 (DE-627)1667671219  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes  |c Christoph Karl Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife, and Alexander Glas 
264 1 |a Mannheim, Germany  |b ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research  |c [2023] 
300 |a 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten)  |b Illustrationen 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
490 1 |a Discussion paper / ZEW  |v no. 23, 072 (12/2023) 
520 |a Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation regimes distorts estimates of histogram moments and forces households to provide probabilistic expectations that are inconsistent with the point forecasts and (ii) how shifting the scale improves the consistency of predictions by allowing respondents to state more detailed beliefs about higher inflation ranges. We also explore potential disadvantages of adjusting the response scale. 
650 4 |a Probabilistic expectations  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a inflation  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a survey data  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
655 4 |0 (DE-206)34  |a Graue Literatur  |5 DE-206 
700 1 |a Dürsch, Peter  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1012813037  |0 (DE-627)662758633  |0 (DE-576)346253497  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Eife, Thomas A.  |d 1971-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)132136260  |0 (DE-627)518396142  |0 (DE-576)298964090  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Glas, Alexander  |d 1986-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1035326566  |0 (DE-627)747297940  |0 (DE-576)382935314  |4 aut 
830 0 |a Discussion paper  |v no. 23, 072 (12/2023)  |9 2023,72  |w (DE-627)1677802278  |w (DE-600)2985404-0  |7 am 
856 4 0 |u https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/66729  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp23072.pdf  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://www.zew.de/publikationen/households-probabilistic-inflation-expectations-in-high-inflation-regimes-1  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei 
856 4 0 |u https://hdl.handle.net/10419/283596  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei 
951 |a BO 
992 |a 20251022 
993 |a WorkingPaper 
994 |a 2023 
998 |g 132136260  |a Eife, Thomas A.  |m 132136260:Eife, Thomas A.  |d 180000  |d 181000  |e 180000PE132136260  |e 181000PE132136260  |k 0/180000/  |k 1/180000/181000/  |p 3 
998 |g 1188757245  |a Becker, Christoph  |m 1188757245:Becker, Christoph  |d 180000  |d 181000  |e 180000PB1188757245  |e 181000PB1188757245  |k 0/180000/  |k 1/180000/181000/  |p 1  |x j 
999 |a KXP-PPN1880369516  |e 4790827534 
BIB |a Y 
JSO |a {"recId":"1880369516","id":{"eki":["1880369516"],"uri":["urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-66729"],"hdl":["10419/283596"]},"name":{"displayForm":["Christoph Karl Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife, and Alexander Glas"]},"origin":[{"dateIssuedKey":"2023","dateIssuedDisp":"[2023]","publisher":"ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research","publisherPlace":"Mannheim, Germany"}],"physDesc":[{"noteIll":"Illustrationen","extent":"1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten)"}],"person":[{"family":"Becker","given":"Christoph","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"Becker, Christoph","role":"aut"},{"role":"aut","display":"Dürsch, Peter","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","given":"Peter","family":"Dürsch"},{"roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"Eife, Thomas A.","given":"Thomas A.","family":"Eife","role":"aut"},{"family":"Glas","roleDisplay":"VerfasserIn","display":"Glas, Alexander","given":"Alexander","role":"aut"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"book"},"title":[{"title_sort":"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes","title":"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes"}],"language":["eng"],"relMultPart":[{"titleAlt":[{"title":"ZEW discussion paper"}],"title":[{"title":"Discussion paper","title_sort":"Discussion paper"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"serial"},"part":{"number":["no. 23, 072 (12/2023)"],"number_sort":["2023,72"]},"name":{"displayForm":["ZEW"]},"pubHistory":["No. 19,0001 (2019, 01)-"],"id":{"hdl":["10419/17"],"eki":["1677802278"],"zdb":["2985404-0"]},"recId":"1677802278","language":["eng"],"disp":"Discussion paper / ZEW","physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"corporate":[{"role":"isb","display":"ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung","roleDisplay":"Herausgebendes Organ"}],"dispAlt":"Discussion paper","origin":[{"dateIssuedKey":"2019","dateIssuedDisp":"2019-","publisher":"[ZEW]","publisherPlace":"[Mannheim]"}]}]} 
SRT |a BECKERCHRIHOUSEHOLDS2023 

Similar Items