Validating the predicted impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical lesions, and cervical cancer: A systematic review of population level data and modelling studies
Background - We compared model predictions with independently published primary data from population-based studies on the impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer and its precursors. - Methods - We searched Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science for studies concerning...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
April 2025
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| In: |
Gynecologic oncology
Year: 2025, Volume: 195, Pages: 134-143 |
| ISSN: | 1095-6859 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ygyno.2025.03.008 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2025.03.008 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0090825825000770 
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| Author Notes: | Daniël de Bondt, Emi Naslazi, Erik Jansen, Rachel Kupets, Bronwen McCurdy, Christine Stogios, Inge de Kok, Jan Hontelez |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Validating the predicted impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical lesions, and cervical cancer |b A systematic review of population level data and modelling studies |c Daniël de Bondt, Emi Naslazi, Erik Jansen, Rachel Kupets, Bronwen McCurdy, Christine Stogios, Inge de Kok, Jan Hontelez |
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| 520 | |a Background - We compared model predictions with independently published primary data from population-based studies on the impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer and its precursors. - Methods - We searched Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science for studies concerning high-income countries published between 2005 to June 2, 2023. Relative risk (RR) for HPV-related outcomes comparing the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods were collected from observational and modelling studies. The relationship between vaccination coverage and observed relative reductions was determined using meta-regressions, and we compared model prediction to observations. - Findings - We identified a total of 5649 potential articles, of which one systematic review, 14 observational studies and 32 modelling studies met our inclusion criteria. A clear relation was found between the RR of HPV diseases related outcomes in the pre- versus post-vaccination era and the vaccination coverage, with 23 out of 28 data points and 19 out of 20 data points showing significant reductions in HPV prevalence and CIN2+ prevalence respectively. Around 67 % (n/N = 12/18) of model predictions were more optimistic on HPV prevalence reductions compared to the 95 % CI of the meta-regression derived from observational studies. For CIN2+ lesions, 48 % (n/N = 31/64) of model predictions for CIN2+ outcomes fell within the 95 % CI. - Interpretation - Model predictions and observational data agree that HPV vaccination can have a substantial impact on HPV related outcomes on a population level. Despite large heterogeneity in observational data and modelling studies, it is particularly encouraging that model predictions on the impact of HPV vaccination on CIN2+ model lesions align with observational studies. - Funding - Ontario Health (formerly known as Cancer Care Ontario). | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Cervical cancer | |
| 650 | 4 | |a HPV vaccination | |
| 650 | 4 | |a meta-regression | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Naslazi, Emi |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jansen, Erik |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kupets, Rachel |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a McCurdy, Bronwen |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Stogios, Christine |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kok, Inge de |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hontelez, Jan |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1140614843 |0 (DE-627)898610907 |0 (DE-576)493921583 |4 aut | |
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