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Did early diagnostic confirmation save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic?: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of early diagnostic confirmation on the COVID-19 pandemic in a developing country. Using a dataset of the first laboratory-confirmed cases across Chinese cities and an instrumental variable strategy to address endogeneity, we show that reducing the time to publicly...

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Hauptverfasser: Chen, Simiao (VerfasserIn) , Jin, Zhangfeng (VerfasserIn) , Bärnighausen, Till (VerfasserIn) , Bloom, David E. (VerfasserIn)
Dokumenttyp: Article (Journal)
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: October 2025
In: China economic review
Year: 2025, Jahrgang: 93, Pages: 1-15
ISSN:1043-951X
DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102487
Online-Zugang:Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102487
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X25001452
Volltext
Verfasserangaben:Simiao Chen, Zhangfeng Jin, Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom

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520 |a This paper investigates the impact of early diagnostic confirmation on the COVID-19 pandemic in a developing country. Using a dataset of the first laboratory-confirmed cases across Chinese cities and an instrumental variable strategy to address endogeneity, we show that reducing the time to publicly confirm the first case in a city by one day led to reductions of 9.4 % in COVID-19 prevalence and 12.7 % in mortality over the subsequent six months. The impact was more pronounced in cities farther from the COVID-19 epicenter, with lower migration exposure, more responsive public health systems, and lower health system capacity utilization. Enhanced social distancing and a less overstressed health system likely drove these effects. Our findings underscore the importance of allocating resources to improve diagnostic technologies; strengthening public health emergency response systems to test for, diagnose, and announce cases of infection; and acting swiftly when facing a potential outbreak. 
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