Dancing in the dark: sentiment shocks and economic activity

The business cycle is driven by expectations - some justified, some not - as documented by a host of studies. What is less clear are the conditions that make the economy susceptible to "sentiment shocks." In this paper, we document that uncertainty, as measured by forecaster disagreement,...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Boeck, Maximilian (VerfasserIn) , Enders, Zeno (VerfasserIn) , Kleemann, Michael (VerfasserIn) , Müller, Gernot J. (VerfasserIn)
Dokumenttyp: Buch/Monographie Arbeitspapier
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Munich, Germany Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH November 2025
Schriftenreihe:CESifo working papers 12252 (2025)
In: CESifo working papers (12252 (2025))

Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:Verlag, kostenfrei: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12252.pdf
Verlag, kostenfrei: https://www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publications/2025/working-paper/dancing-dark-sentiment-shocks-and-economic-activity
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334608
Volltext
Verfasserangaben:Maximilian Boeck, Zeno Enders, Michael Kleemann, Gernot J. Müller

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a2200000 c 4500
001 1942742584
003 DE-627
005 20260130074321.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 251128s2025 gw |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a 10419/334608  |2 hdl 
035 |a (DE-627)1942742584 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1942742584 
035 |a (OCoLC)1554741769 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
044 |c XA-DE 
084 |a 17  |2 sdnb 
084 |a C32  |a C34  |a D84  |a E21  |a E23  |a E32  |2 jelc 
100 1 |a Boeck, Maximilian  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1262345227  |0 (DE-627)1809948991  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Dancing in the dark  |b sentiment shocks and economic activity  |c Maximilian Boeck, Zeno Enders, Michael Kleemann, Gernot J. Müller 
264 1 |a Munich, Germany  |b Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH  |c November 2025 
300 |a 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)  |b Illustrationen 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
490 1 |a CESifo working papers  |v 12252 (2025) 
520 |a The business cycle is driven by expectations - some justified, some not - as documented by a host of studies. What is less clear are the conditions that make the economy susceptible to "sentiment shocks." In this paper, we document that uncertainty, as measured by forecaster disagreement, is essential. At times when disagreement is low, sentiment shocks hardly matter for economic activity but are fully absorbed by prices. If, instead, disagreement is high, they move activity with little impact on prices. We obtain these results based on time-series data and a theoretical account based on a New Keynesian model with dispersed information. 
650 4 |a sentiment shocks  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a noise shocks  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a animal spirits  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a business cycles  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a nowcast error  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a disagreement  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a dispersed beliefs  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
655 4 |0 (DE-206)34  |a Graue Literatur  |5 DE-206 
700 1 |a Enders, Zeno  |d 1977-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1042697515  |0 (DE-627)76941379X  |0 (DE-576)343512777  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kleemann, Michael  |d 1984-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1071845578  |0 (DE-627)826468497  |0 (DE-576)433361743  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Müller, Gernot J.  |d 1975-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)128912340  |0 (DE-627)56908685X  |0 (DE-576)297396099  |4 aut 
810 2 |a CESifo GmbH  |t CESifo working papers  |v 12252 (2025)  |9 12252  |w (DE-627)340076984  |w (DE-576)281209073  |w (DE-600)2065232-X  |x 2364-1428  |7 am 
856 4 0 |u https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12252.pdf  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
856 4 0 |u https://www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publications/2025/working-paper/dancing-dark-sentiment-shocks-and-economic-activity  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
856 4 0 |u https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334608  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
951 |a BO 
992 |a 20260116 
993 |a WorkingPaper 
994 |a 2025 
998 |g 1042697515  |a Enders, Zeno  |m 1042697515:Enders, Zeno  |d 180000  |d 181000  |e 180000PE1042697515  |e 181000PE1042697515  |k 0/180000/  |k 1/180000/181000/  |p 2 
999 |a KXP-PPN1942742584  |e 485011475X 
BIB |a Y 
JSO |a {"relMultPart":[{"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"serial"},"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"title":[{"title":"CESifo working papers","title_sort":"CESifo working papers"}],"id":{"zdb":["2065232-X"],"eki":["340076984"],"hdl":["10419/19"],"issn":["2364-1428"]},"corporate":[{"display":"CESifo GmbH","role":"aut"},{"display":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München","role":"isb"}],"titleAlt":[{"title":"CESifo working paper series"},{"title":"Working paper"},{"title":"CES working paper series"}],"disp":"CESifo working papers","part":{"number":["12252 (2025)"],"number_sort":["12252"]},"pubHistory":["Nr. 1.1991 -"],"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"München","dateIssuedDisp":"1991-","publisher":"[Verlag nicht ermittelbar]","dateIssuedKey":"1991"}],"dispAlt":"CESifo GmbH: CESifo working papers","recId":"340076984","language":["eng"],"note":["Gesehen am 30.04.25"]}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"book"},"physDesc":[{"extent":"1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)","noteIll":"Illustrationen"}],"title":[{"subtitle":"sentiment shocks and economic activity","title":"Dancing in the dark","title_sort":"Dancing in the dark"}],"id":{"hdl":["10419/334608"],"eki":["1942742584"]},"name":{"displayForm":["Maximilian Boeck, Zeno Enders, Michael Kleemann, Gernot J. Müller"]},"person":[{"display":"Boeck, Maximilian","family":"Boeck","given":"Maximilian","role":"aut"},{"given":"Zeno","role":"aut","display":"Enders, Zeno","family":"Enders"},{"family":"Kleemann","display":"Kleemann, Michael","role":"aut","given":"Michael"},{"family":"Müller","display":"Müller, Gernot J.","role":"aut","given":"Gernot J."}],"origin":[{"publisher":"Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH","dateIssuedDisp":"November 2025","dateIssuedKey":"2025","publisherPlace":"Munich, Germany"}],"language":["eng"],"recId":"1942742584"} 
SRT |a BOECKMAXIMDANCINGINT2025