Underconfidence and the low-experimentation trap
We study how confidence bias affects investment in learning via experimentation, a mechanism critical for technology adoption under uncertainty. We hypothesize that bias direction and strength predict how willingness to experiment diverges from unbiased agents. We measure revealed and stated demand...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Dokumenttyp: | Book/Monograph Arbeitspapier |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Heidelberg
Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg
23 Jan. 2026
Heidelberg Heidelberg University, Department of Economics 23 Jan. 2026 |
| Schriftenreihe: | AWI discussion paper series
no. 769 (Januar 2026) |
| In: |
AWI discussion paper series (no. 769 (Januar 2026))
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| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00037956 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-379563 Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00037956 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/37956 Verlag, kostenfrei: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/37956/7/Tyack_Underconfidence_dp769_2025.pdf 
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| Verfasserangaben: | Nicholas Tyack, Aminou Arouna, Urbain Dembélé, Timo Goeschl |
| Zusammenfassung: | We study how confidence bias affects investment in learning via experimentation, a mechanism critical for technology adoption under uncertainty. We hypothesize that bias direction and strength predict how willingness to experiment diverges from unbiased agents. We measure revealed and stated demand for experimenting with drought-resistant crop varieties of 1,957 farmers in West Africa, a climate change hotspot. Consistent with our hypothesis, confidence bias strongly predicts willingness to experiment. The effect, however, is driven exclusively by underconfident agents, among whom females are overrepresented. In deteriorating environments, this behavioral friction undercuts effective technology diffusion and risks trapping individuals in maladapted production environments. |
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| Beschreibung: | Online Resource |
| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00037956 |