Buchumschlag

Underconfidence and the low-experimentation trap

We study how confidence bias affects investment in learning via experimentation, a mechanism critical for technology adoption under uncertainty. We hypothesize that bias direction and strength predict how willingness to experiment diverges from unbiased agents. We measure revealed and stated demand...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Tyack, Nicholas (VerfasserIn) , Arouna, Aminou (VerfasserIn) , Dembélé, Urbain (VerfasserIn) , Goeschl, Timo (VerfasserIn)
Dokumenttyp: Buch/Monographie Arbeitspapier
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Heidelberg Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg 23 Jan. 2026
Heidelberg Heidelberg University, Department of Economics 23 Jan. 2026
Schriftenreihe:AWI discussion paper series no. 769 (Januar 2026)
In: AWI discussion paper series (no. 769 (Januar 2026))

DOI:10.11588/heidok.00037956
Schlagworte:
Graue Literatur
Online-Zugang:Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-379563
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00037956
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/37956
Verlag, kostenfrei: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/37956/7/Tyack_Underconfidence_dp769_2025.pdf
Volltext
Verfasserangaben:Nicholas Tyack, Aminou Arouna, Urbain Dembélé, Timo Goeschl

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a2200000 c 4500
001 1950253309
003 DE-627
005 20260202114032.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 260126s2026 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-379563  |2 urn 
024 7 |a 10.11588/heidok.00037956  |2 doi 
035 |a (DE-627)1950253309 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1950253309 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
082 0 4 |a 330 
084 |a 17  |2 sdnb 
084 |a D83  |a D91  |a O33  |a Q16  |a Q54  |a Q55  |2 jelc 
100 1 |a Tyack, Nicholas  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1388013185  |0 (DE-627)1950253996  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Underconfidence and the low-experimentation trap  |c Nicholas Tyack, Aminou Arouna, Urbain Dembélé, Timo Goeschl 
264 1 |a Heidelberg  |b Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg  |c 23 Jan. 2026 
264 1 |a Heidelberg  |b Heidelberg University, Department of Economics  |c 23 Jan. 2026 
300 |a 1 Online-Ressource (68 Seiten)  |b Illustrationen, Diagramme 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
490 1 |a AWI discussion paper series  |v no. 769 (Januar 2026) 
520 |a We study how confidence bias affects investment in learning via experimentation, a mechanism critical for technology adoption under uncertainty. We hypothesize that bias direction and strength predict how willingness to experiment diverges from unbiased agents. We measure revealed and stated demand for experimenting with drought-resistant crop varieties of 1,957 farmers in West Africa, a climate change hotspot. Consistent with our hypothesis, confidence bias strongly predicts willingness to experiment. The effect, however, is driven exclusively by underconfident agents, among whom females are overrepresented. In deteriorating environments, this behavioral friction undercuts effective technology diffusion and risks trapping individuals in maladapted production environments. 
650 4 |a Underconfidence  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a overconfidence  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a experimentation  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
650 4 |a adaptation  |7 (dpeaa)DE-206 
655 4 |0 (DE-206)34  |a Graue Literatur  |5 DE-206 
700 1 |a Arouna, Aminou  |d 1975-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)139759336  |0 (DE-627)613089847  |0 (DE-576)302513876  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Dembélé, Urbain  |e VerfasserIn  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Goeschl, Timo  |d 1970-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)141854138  |0 (DE-627)632449721  |0 (DE-576)326488928  |4 aut 
830 0 |a AWI discussion paper series  |v no. 769 (Januar 2026)  |9 769  |w (DE-627)1741200679  |w (DE-600)3046500-X  |7 am 
856 4 0 |u https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-379563  |q application/pdf  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00037956  |x Resolving-System  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
856 4 0 |u http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/37956  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei  |3 Volltext  |7 0 
856 4 0 |u https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/37956/7/Tyack_Underconfidence_dp769_2025.pdf  |q application/pdf  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei  |7 0 
912 |a ZDB-232-HEDO 
951 |a BO 
992 |a 20260126 
993 |a WorkingPaper 
994 |a 2026 
998 |g 141854138  |a Goeschl, Timo  |m 141854138:Goeschl, Timo  |d 180000  |e 180000PG141854138  |k 0/180000/  |p 4  |y j 
999 |a KXP-PPN1950253309  |e 4860892089 
BIB |a Y 
JSO |a {"recId":"1950253309","relMultPart":[{"part":{"number":["no. 769 (Januar 2026)"],"number_sort":["769"]},"id":{"zdb":["3046500-X"],"eki":["1741200679"],"hdl":["10419/127204"]},"corporate":[{"display":"Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften","role":"isb"}],"pubHistory":["No. 692 (October 2020)-"],"name":{"displayForm":["University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics"]},"note":["Gesehen am 20.11.23"],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"serial"},"language":["eng"],"title":[{"title":"AWI discussion paper series","title_sort":"AWI discussion paper series"}],"origin":[{"dateIssuedDisp":"[2020]-","publisherPlace":"[Heidelberg]","publisher":"[University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics]"}],"disp":"AWI discussion paper series","dispAlt":"AWI discussion paper series","physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"recId":"1741200679"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"1 Online-Ressource (68 Seiten)","noteIll":"Illustrationen, Diagramme"}],"title":[{"title":"Underconfidence and the low-experimentation trap","title_sort":"Underconfidence and the low-experimentation trap"}],"id":{"eki":["1950253309"],"uri":["urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-379563"],"doi":["10.11588/heidok.00037956"]},"language":["eng"],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"book"},"person":[{"family":"Tyack","given":"Nicholas","role":"aut","display":"Tyack, Nicholas"},{"display":"Arouna, Aminou","role":"aut","given":"Aminou","family":"Arouna"},{"display":"Dembélé, Urbain","family":"Dembélé","given":"Urbain","role":"aut"},{"family":"Goeschl","role":"aut","given":"Timo","display":"Goeschl, Timo"}],"name":{"displayForm":["Nicholas Tyack, Aminou Arouna, Urbain Dembélé, Timo Goeschl"]},"origin":[{"publisherPlace":"Heidelberg ; Heidelberg","dateIssuedDisp":"23 Jan. 2026","dateIssuedKey":"2026","publisher":"Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg ; Heidelberg University, Department of Economics"}]} 
SRT |a TYACKNICHOUNDERCONFI2320 

Ähnliche Einträge