Flood changes and generating mechanisms in the Upper Rhine Basin under a warming climate
Floods, among the most destructive natural disasters, cause significant socioeconomic and ecological losses, with their patterns increasingly disrupted by climate change. As Western Europe’s backbone, the Rhine River is vital due to its historical significance, dense population, and industrial conce...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
January 2026
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| In: |
Journal of hydrology
Year: 2026, Volume: 664, Pages: 1-19 |
| ISSN: | 1879-2707 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169425018487 
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| Author Notes: | Ying Yi, Yu Zhu, Zhangkang Shu, Shiyin Liu, Lucas Menzel |
| Summary: | Floods, among the most destructive natural disasters, cause significant socioeconomic and ecological losses, with their patterns increasingly disrupted by climate change. As Western Europe’s backbone, the Rhine River is vital due to its historical significance, dense population, and industrial concentration. Flooding in the Upper Rhine Basin (URB) is particularly concerning, given its heightened sensitivity to climate change. This study employs the Spatial Process in HYdrology (SPHY) model to simulate runoff in the URB and analyze flood characteristics and underlying mechanisms during 1960-2019. Results indicate that the URB is a snow-dominated alpine catchment, where snow runoff contributes an average of 61 % to total runoff. Of the 265 investigated flood events, 222 were snowmelt-dominated, primarily occurring between May and July during peak snowmelt periods. Rainfall-dominated floods were infrequent and exhibited lower peak discharges, whereas combined snowmelt-rainfall floods had greater magnitudes than those dominated by either snowmelt or rainfall alone. The quantile regression analysis revealed that the characteristics of flood events across different percentiles exhibited distinct temporal variations over the study period. In general, a tendency toward increasing flood peaks and prolonged event durations was observed, most notably for events around the 70th percentile. This pattern suggests that rising temperatures have progressively impacted the peak flow generation mechanisms in the URB. Specifically, rising temperature has altered the regional hydroclimatology by shifting precipitation from snowfall to rainfall and by disturbing the timing and magnitude of snowmelt. The increasing frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow (ROS) events further exacerbated these alterations. These changes consequently enhanced snowmelt-driven runoff generation, and modified the timing and magnitude of flood responses. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive flood management and water resource strategies to mitigate the escalating flood risks in the URB under a warming climate. |
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| Item Description: | Online verfügbar: 01.November 2025, Artikelversion: 06. November 2026 Gesehen am 04.03.2026 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 1879-2707 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134508 |