Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore
Background - With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. - Metho...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
August 2020
|
| In: |
The lancet. Regional Health. Western Pacific
Year: 2020, Volume: 1, Pages: 1-7 |
| ISSN: | 2666-6065 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606520300043 
|
| Author Notes: | Borame L. Dickens, Joel R. Koo, Jue Tao Lim, Minah Park, Sharon Quaye, Haoyang Sun, Yinxiaohe Sun, Rachael Pung, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Louis Yi Ann Chai, Vernon J. Lee, Alex R. Cook |
| Summary: | Background - With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. - Methods - We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures. - Findings - At baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective. - Interpretation - Gradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere. - Funding - Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | Gesehen am 20.08.2026 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 2666-6065 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004 |