Statistical numeracy as a moderator of (pseudo)contingency effects on decision behavior
Pseudocontingencies denote contingency estimates inferred from base rates rather than from cell frequencies. We examined the role of statistical numeracy for effects of such fallible but adaptive inferences on choice behavior. In Experiment 1, we provided information on single observations as well a...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
10 February 2017
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| In: |
Acta psychologica
Year: 2017, Volume: 174, Pages: 68-79 |
| ISSN: | 1873-6297 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.002 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, Volltext: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.002 Verlag, Volltext: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000169181630172X 
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| Author Notes: | Hanna Fleig, Thorsten Meiser, Florence Ettlin, Jan Rummel |
| Summary: | Pseudocontingencies denote contingency estimates inferred from base rates rather than from cell frequencies. We examined the role of statistical numeracy for effects of such fallible but adaptive inferences on choice behavior. In Experiment 1, we provided information on single observations as well as on base rates and tracked participants' eye movements. In Experiment 2, we manipulated the availability of information on cell frequencies and base rates between conditions. Our results demonstrate that a focus on base rates rather than cell frequencies benefits pseudocontingency effects. Learners who are more proficient in (conditional) probability calculation prefer to rely on cell frequencies in order to judge contingencies, though, as was evident from their gaze behavior. If cell frequencies are available in summarized format, they may infer the true contingency between options and outcomes. Otherwise, however, even highly numerate learners are susceptible to pseudocontingency effects. |
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| Item Description: | Gesehen am 13.04.2017 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 1873-6297 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.002 |