Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s
Figures -- Tables -- Abbreviations -- Executive summary -- 1 Introduction and key findings Sari Kovats, Simon Hales, Simon Lloyd -- 1.1 Methods and data -- 1.2 Findings -- 1.3 Discussion -- 2 Heat-related mortality Yasushi Honda, Masahide Kondo, Glenn McGregor, Ho Kim, Yue-Leon Guo, Simon Hales, Sar...
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| Format: | Book/Monograph |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Geneva, Switzerland
World Health Organization
2014
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| Volumes / Articles: | Show Volumes / Articles. |
| Online Access: | Verlag, View online, Volltext: http://apo.org.au/node/41763 Verlag, Volltext: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134014/1/9789241507691_eng.pdf 
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| Author Notes: | [editors: Simon Hales, Sari Kovats, Simon Lloyd, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum] |
| Summary: | Figures -- Tables -- Abbreviations -- Executive summary -- 1 Introduction and key findings Sari Kovats, Simon Hales, Simon Lloyd -- 1.1 Methods and data -- 1.2 Findings -- 1.3 Discussion -- 2 Heat-related mortality Yasushi Honda, Masahide Kondo, Glenn McGregor, Ho Kim, Yue-Leon Guo, Simon Hales, Sari Kovats -- 2.1 Background -- 2.2 Model development -- 2.3 Quantifying the association between temperature and mortality -- 2.4 Scenario data -- 2.5 Mortality -- 2.6 Adaptation assumptions projections -- 2.7 Results -- 2.8 Uncertainty -- 2.9 Discussion -- 3 Coastal flood mortality Simon Lloyd, Sari Kovats, Zaid Chalabi -- 3.1 Background -- 3.2 Quantifying the burden of flood-related disasters -- 3.3 Objectives -- 3.4 Description of the model -- 3.5 Scenario data -- 3.6 Assumptions -- 3.7 Results -- 3.8 Discussion -- 4 Diarrhoeal disease Sari Kovats, Simon Lloyd -- 4.1 Background -- 4.1.1 Sensitivity of diarrhoeal disease to climate variability and climate change -- 4.2 Description of model -- 4.2.1 Existing quantifications of the diarrhoea-temperature relationship -- 4.2.2 Model development -- 4.3 Scenario data -- 4.3.1 Climate data -- 4.3.2 Diarrhoea mortality projections -- 4.4 Assumptions -- 4.5 Results -- 4.6 Climate uncertainty -- 4.7 Discussion -- 4.7.1 Limitations of this study -- 5 Malaria Andreas Béguin, Joacim Rocklöv, Christofer Åström, Rainer Sauerborn, Valerie Louis, Simon Hales -- 5.1 Background -- 5.2 Description of the model -- 5.2.1 Malaria data -- 5.2.2 Climate data (observed) -- 5.2.3 GDP data -- 5.2.4 Population data -- 5.3 Estimating model parameters and validation -- 5.3.1 Final model -- 5.4 Scenario data -- 5.5 Results -- 5.5.1 Model parameters -- 5.5.2 Change in malaria risk in 2030 and 2050 -- 5.6 Population at risk of malaria -- 5.7 Discussion -- 6 Dengue Christofer Åström, Joacim Rocklöv, Andreas Béguin, Rainer Sauerborn, Valerie Louis, Simon Hales -- 6.1 Background -- 6.2 Description of the model -- 6.2.1 Dengue distribution data (observed) -- 6.2.2 Climate data (observed) -- 6.2.3 GDP and population data -- 6.3 Scenario data -- 6.4 Statistical analysis -- 6.4.1 Validation of model -- 6.5 Results: time periods and scenarios -- 6.5.1 Model -- 6.5.2 Population at risk -- 6.5.3 Projection of mortality -- 6.6 Discussion -- 7 Undernutrition Simon Lloyd, Sari Kovats, Zaid Chalabi -- 7.1 Background -- 7.2 Assessment method: linking crop, trade and health impact models -- 7.2.1 Step 1: national calorie availability estimates -- 7.2.2 Step 2: within-country food distribution estimates -- 7.2.3 Step 3: estimates of child stunting -- 7.2.4 Step 4: estimates of all-cause mortality attributable to stunting -- 7.3 Scenario data -- 7.3.1 Observed climate data -- 7.3.2 Climate scenarios -- 7.3.3 GDP and population projections -- 7.3.4 Scaling output for consistency with other health outcomes in the global assessment -- 7.4 Results -- 7.5 Regional estimates of children with stunting due to climate change -- 7.6 Mortality due to climate change-attributable undernutrition -- 7.7 Uncertainty -- 7.7.1 Parameter uncertainty in the health model -- 7.7.2 Uncertainty in stunting-attributable death -- 7.8 Discussion -- 8 Future worlds and scenario data Sari Kovats, Simon Lloyd, Sophie Bonjour, Colin Mathers -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Climate data: observed -- 8.3 Climate scenario data -- 8.4 Population projections -- 8.5 GDP data -- 8.6 Mortality projections -- 9 References -- Annex Definition of regions used in this assessment Overview: This assessment is an update and a further development of the assessment first published by WHO for the year 2000, now with a wider range of health impacts, and projections for future years. It takes into account a subset of the possible health impacts, and assumes continued economic growth and health progress. The assessment takes into account a subset of the possible health impacts, and assumes continued economic growth and health progress. Even under these conditions, it concludes that climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050; 38 000 due to heat exposure in elderly people, 48 000 due to diarrhoea, 60 000 due to malaria, and 95 000 due to childhood undernutrition. Results indicate that the burden of disease from climate change in the future will continue to fall mainly on children in developing countries, but that other population groups will be increasingly affected "Climate change is expected to affect many aspects of health. This report presents an assessment of the expected results on a subset of these health outcomes, for which quantitative evidence is available at the global level: heat-related mortality, coastal flood mortality, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue and undernutrition. Although the assessment does not include all potential health risks, it makes clear that climate change is likely to have significant impacts in coming decades, and indicates the scale and nature of the challenges that need to be addressed through strengthening health resilience to climate risks, and mitigating climate change."--Page 4 of cover |
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| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 105-112). - Online resource; title from PDF cover (World Health Organization, viewed January 2, 2015) |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISBN: | 9789241507691 9241507691 |