Information Rigidities
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology for Testing for Forecast Smoothing; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; III. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Empirical Findings; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; Information Stickiness; Forecast Smoothing; V. Conclusion;...
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| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Book/Monograph Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington
International Monetary Fund
2014
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| Edition: | Online-Ausg. |
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
EBL-Schweitzer |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Verlag, Volltext: http://swb.eblib.com/patron/FullRecord.aspx?p=1653426
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| Summary: | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology for Testing for Forecast Smoothing; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; III. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Empirical Findings; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; Information Stickiness; Forecast Smoothing; V. Conclusion; Tables; 1. Basic Features of Forecast Data; 2. Revisions and Deviations from the Average Forecast; 3. Information Rigidity and Forecast Smoothing; 4. Country-Specific Estimates; Figures; 1. Root Mean Squared Forecast Errors over Forecast Horizons; 2. Mean Absolute Revisions over Forecast Horizons 3. Distribution of Forecast Revisions4. Distribution of Deviation of Individual Forecasts from Average; 5. Informational Rigidities at Different Forecast Horizons; 6. Fractions of Revised Individual Forecasts; 7. Distribution of Information Rigidity Coefficients across Countries; References We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989â??2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line â??noisyâ?? information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference betwe |
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| Item Description: | Description based upon print version of record |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISBN: | 9781484305959 |