Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in- ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, require...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book/Monograph Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Heidelberg
Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg
2019
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| Series: | Discussion paper series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
no. 664 |
| In: |
Discussion paper series (no. 664)
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| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00026507 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-265072 Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://dx.doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00026507 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/26507 Resolving-System, kostenfrei: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/207640 
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| Author Notes: | Fabian Krüger and Lora Pavlova, Heidelberg University |
| Summary: | Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in- ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. |
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| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00026507 |