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Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre : the case of COVID-19

We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The...

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Hauptverfasser: Massad, Eduardo (Verfasst von) , Amaku, Marcos (Verfasst von) , Wilder-Smith, Annelies (Verfasst von) , Santos, Paulo Cesar Costa dos (Verfasst von) , Struchiner, Claudio Jose (Verfasst von) , Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra (Verfasst von)
Dokumenttyp: Article (Journal)
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: 9 June 2020
In: Epidemiology and infection
Year: 2020, Jahrgang: 148
ISSN:1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001223
Online-Zugang:Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001223
Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/two-complementary-modelbased-methods-for-calculating-the-risk-of-international-spreading-of-a-novel-virus-from-the-outbreak-epicentre-the-case-of-covid19/F74CA499693806D3F62BF354A54A2D77
Volltext
Verfasserangaben:Eduardo Massad, Marcos Amaku, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Paulo Cesar Costa dos Santos, Claudio Jose Struchiner and Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.
Beschreibung:Gesehen am 18.08.2020
Beschreibung:Online Resource
ISSN:1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001223

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