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Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre : the case of COVID-19

We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Massad, Eduardo (Author) , Amaku, Marcos (Author) , Wilder-Smith, Annelies (Author) , Santos, Paulo Cesar Costa dos (Author) , Struchiner, Claudio Jose (Author) , Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra (Author)
Format: Article (Journal)
Language:English
Published: 9 June 2020
In: Epidemiology and infection
Year: 2020, Volume: 148
ISSN:1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001223
Online Access:Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001223
Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/two-complementary-modelbased-methods-for-calculating-the-risk-of-international-spreading-of-a-novel-virus-from-the-outbreak-epicentre-the-case-of-covid19/F74CA499693806D3F62BF354A54A2D77
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Author Notes:Eduardo Massad, Marcos Amaku, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Paulo Cesar Costa dos Santos, Claudio Jose Struchiner and Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho
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Summary:We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.
Item Description:Gesehen am 18.08.2020
Physical Description:Online Resource
ISSN:1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001223

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