Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
Summary - Background Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided - for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of - mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and popula...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
7 July 2021
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| In: |
The lancet. Planetary health
Year: 2021, Volume: 5, Issue: 7, Pages: e404-e414 |
| ISSN: | 2542-5196 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
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| Author Notes: | Felipe J Colón-González, Maquins Sewe, Adrian Tompkins, Henrik Sjödin, Alejandro Casallas García, Joacim Rocklöv, Cyril Caminade, Rachel Lowe |
| Summary: | Summary - Background Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided - for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of - mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this - study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and - estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across - an altitudinal gradient. - Methods Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission - season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the - period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation - models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways. - Findings We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical - highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability - will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional - months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in - urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both - diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and - urban areas. - Interpretation Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in - already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that - outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. - The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African - region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island - effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission. |
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| Item Description: | Gesehen am 20.10.2021 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 2542-5196 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 |