Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
Summary - Background Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided - for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of - mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and popula...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Dokumenttyp: | Article (Journal) |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
7 July 2021
|
| In: |
The lancet. Planetary health
Year: 2021, Jahrgang: 5, Heft: 7, Pages: e404-e414 |
| ISSN: | 2542-5196 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 |
| Online-Zugang: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
|
| Verfasserangaben: | Felipe J Colón-González, Maquins Sewe, Adrian Tompkins, Henrik Sjödin, Alejandro Casallas García, Joacim Rocklöv, Cyril Caminade, Rachel Lowe |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 177457313X | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20220820061418.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 211020s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)177457313X | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP177457313X | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1341421762 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 33 |2 sdnb | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Colón-González, Felipe J. |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1243596597 |0 (DE-627)177457229X |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study |c Felipe J Colón-González, Maquins Sewe, Adrian Tompkins, Henrik Sjödin, Alejandro Casallas García, Joacim Rocklöv, Cyril Caminade, Rachel Lowe |
| 264 | 1 | |c 7 July 2021 | |
| 300 | |a 11 | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Gesehen am 20.10.2021 | ||
| 520 | |a Summary - Background Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided - for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of - mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this - study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and - estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across - an altitudinal gradient. - Methods Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission - season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the - period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation - models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways. - Findings We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical - highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability - will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional - months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in - urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both - diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and - urban areas. - Interpretation Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in - already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that - outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. - The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African - region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island - effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Sewe, Maquins |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tompkins, Adrian |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sjödin, Henrik |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Casallas García, Alejandro |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rocklöv, Joacim |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1162960965 |0 (DE-627)1027050808 |0 (DE-576)507703707 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Caminade, Cyril |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lowe, Rachel |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t The lancet. Planetary health |d Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2017 |g 5(2021), 7 vom: Juli, Seite e404-e414 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)895241757 |w (DE-600)2902154-6 |w (DE-576)492276382 |x 2542-5196 |7 nnas |a Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:5 |g year:2021 |g number:7 |g month:07 |g pages:e404-e414 |g extent:11 |a Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study |
| 787 | 0 | 8 | |i Errata |a Colón-González, Felipe J. |t Correction to Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5: e426-35 |d 2021 |w (DE-627)1774576724 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 |x Verlag |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 992 | |a 20211020 | ||
| 993 | |a Article | ||
| 994 | |a 2021 | ||
| 998 | |g 1162960965 |a Rocklöv, Joacim |m 1162960965:Rocklöv, Joacim |p 6 | ||
| 999 | |a KXP-PPN177457313X |e 3991547430 | ||
| BIB | |a Y | ||
| SER | |a journal | ||
| JSO | |a {"recId":"177457313X","physDesc":[{"extent":"11 S."}],"relHost":[{"titleUni":[{"title":"The lancet (London)"}],"language":["eng"],"pubHistory":["Volume 1, issue 1 (April 2017)-"],"part":{"extent":"11","volume":"5","issue":"7","pages":"e404-e414","year":"2021","text":"5(2021), 7 vom: Juli, Seite e404-e414"},"id":{"issn":["2542-5196"],"eki":["895241757"],"zdb":["2902154-6"]},"origin":[{"publisher":"Elsevier","publisherPlace":"Amsterdam","dateIssuedDisp":"[2017]-"}],"disp":"Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling studyThe lancet. Planetary health","title":[{"partname":"Planetary health","title":"The lancet","title_sort":"lancet"}],"physDesc":[{"extent":"Online-Ressource"}],"recId":"895241757","titleAlt":[{"title":"The Lancet planetary health"}],"type":{"media":"Online-Ressource","bibl":"periodical"}}],"note":["Gesehen am 20.10.2021"],"language":["eng"],"origin":[{"dateIssuedKey":"2021","dateIssuedDisp":"7 July 2021"}],"person":[{"display":"Colón-González, Felipe J.","role":"aut","family":"Colón-González","given":"Felipe J."},{"given":"Maquins","family":"Sewe","role":"aut","display":"Sewe, Maquins"},{"family":"Tompkins","role":"aut","display":"Tompkins, Adrian","given":"Adrian"},{"given":"Henrik","role":"aut","display":"Sjödin, Henrik","family":"Sjödin"},{"given":"Alejandro","family":"Casallas García","display":"Casallas García, Alejandro","role":"aut"},{"family":"Rocklöv","role":"aut","display":"Rocklöv, Joacim","given":"Joacim"},{"role":"aut","display":"Caminade, Cyril","family":"Caminade","given":"Cyril"},{"given":"Rachel","role":"aut","display":"Lowe, Rachel","family":"Lowe"}],"id":{"doi":["10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7"],"eki":["177457313X"]},"type":{"bibl":"article-journal","media":"Online-Ressource"},"title":[{"title_sort":"Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study","title":"Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world- a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study"}],"name":{"displayForm":["Felipe J Colón-González, Maquins Sewe, Adrian Tompkins, Henrik Sjödin, Alejandro Casallas García, Joacim Rocklöv, Cyril Caminade, Rachel Lowe"]}} | ||
| SRT | |a COLONGONZAPROJECTING7202 | ||