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Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics

Assessment of the relative impact of climate change on malaria dynamics is a complex problem. Climate is a well-known factor that plays a crucial role in driving malaria outbreaks in epidemic transmission areas. However, its influence in endemic environments with intensive malaria control interventi...

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Main Authors: Beloconi, Anton (Author) , Nyawanda, Bryan O. (Author) , Bigogo, Godfrey (Author) , Khagayi, Sammy (Author) , Obor, David (Author) , Danquah, Ina (Author) , Kariuki, Simon (Author) , Munga, Stephen (Author) , Vounatsou, Penelope (Author)
Format: Article (Journal)
Language:English
Published: 2023
In: Scientific reports
Year: 2023, Volume: 13, Pages: 1-12
ISSN:2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-33868-8
Online Access:Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33868-8
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-33868-8
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Author Notes:Anton Beloconi, Bryan O. Nyawanda, Godfrey Bigogo, Sammy Khagayi, David Obor, Ina Danquah, Simon Kariuki, Stephen Munga & Penelope Vounatsou
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Summary:Assessment of the relative impact of climate change on malaria dynamics is a complex problem. Climate is a well-known factor that plays a crucial role in driving malaria outbreaks in epidemic transmission areas. However, its influence in endemic environments with intensive malaria control interventions is not fully understood, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, long-term malaria data. The demographic surveillance systems in Africa offer unique platforms for quantifying the relative effects of weather variability on the burden of malaria. Here, using a process-based stochastic transmission model, we show that in the lowlands of malaria endemic western Kenya, variations in climatic factors played a key role in driving malaria incidence during 2008-2019, despite high bed net coverage and use among the population. The model captures some of the main mechanisms of human, parasite, and vector dynamics, and opens the possibility to forecast malaria in endemic regions, taking into account the interaction between future climatic conditions and intervention scenarios.
Item Description:Veröffentlicht: 05. Mai 2023
Gesehen am 02.08.2023
Physical Description:Online Resource
ISSN:2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-33868-8

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