Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations
Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we systematically examine the extent to...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
16 October 2023
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| In: |
Frontiers in psychology
Year: 2023, Volume: 14, Pages: 1-15 |
| ISSN: | 1664-1078 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370 Verlag, lizenzpflichtig, Volltext: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370 
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| Author Notes: | Nicole Steib, Stefan Krauss, Karin Binder, Theresa Büchter, Katharina Böcherer-Linder, Andreas Eichler and Markus Vogel |
| Summary: | Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we systematically examine the extent to which people understand the effects of changes in the three input probabilities on the positive predictive value, that is, covariational reasoning. In this regard, two different operationalizations for measuring covariational reasoning (i.e., by single-choice vs. slider format) are investigated in an empirical study with N = 229 university students. In addition, we aim to answer the question wheter a skill in “conventional” Bayesian reasoning is a prerequisite for covariational reasoning. |
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| Item Description: | Gesehen am 06.02.2024 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 1664-1078 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370 |