Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries
Purpose: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article (Journal) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
28 August 2024
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| In: |
BMC public health
Year: 2024, Volume: 24, Pages: 1-17 |
| ISSN: | 1471-2458 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12889-024-19799-7 |
| Online Access: | Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-19799-7
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| Author Notes: | Diogo Costa, Sven Rohleder and Kayvan Bozorgmehr |
| Summary: | Purpose: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor - COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker - OxCGRT. Methods: NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5-25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). Results: During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. Conclusion: In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT). |
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| Item Description: | Gesehen am 07.10.2024 |
| Physical Description: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 1471-2458 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12889-024-19799-7 |