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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

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Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous exp...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Conrad, Christian (Author) , Lahiri, Kajal (Author)
Format: Book/Monograph Working Paper
Language:English
Published: Heidelberg Alfred-Weber-Institut 22 Okt. 2024
Heidelberg Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg 22 Okt. 2024
Series:AWI discussion paper series no. 754 (September 2024)
In: AWI discussion paper series (no. 754 (September 2024))

DOI:10.11588/heidok.00035499
Subjects:
Graue Literatur
Online Access:Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-354990
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00035499
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/35499
Verlag, kostenfrei: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/35499/7/Conrad_Lahiri_dp754_2024.pdf
Resolving-System, kostenfrei: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/306524
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Author Notes:Christian Conrad and Kajal Lahiri
Description
Summary:Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and pointing to possible directions for future research. A literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.
Physical Description:Online Resource
DOI:10.11588/heidok.00035499

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