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The association of climate-induced stressors on risk of negative sentiment: an analysis from 462 million geotagged tweets in Europe

This study examines how climate-induced health risks influence negative sentiments on European social tweets from 2015 to 2022. Analyzing over 400 million tweets using NLP tools (NLTK, LIWC22) and spatial-temporal aggregation at the NUTS2 weekly level, we applied a Poisson generalized additive model...

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Main Authors: Al-Ahdal, Tareq (Author) , Barman, Sandra (Author) , Alahmad, Barrak (Author) , Dafka, Stella (Author) , Gallo, Elisa (Author) , Ballester, Joan (Author) , Sofiev, Mikhail (Author) , Romanello, Marina (Author) , Bärnighausen, Till (Author) , Gertz, Michael (Author) , Rocklöv, Joacim (Author)
Format: Article (Journal)
Language:English
Published: 19 December 2025
In: iScience
Year: 2025, Volume: 28, Issue: 12, Pages: 1-12
ISSN:2589-0042
DOI:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113933
Online Access:Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113933
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225021947
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Author Notes:Tareq Al-Ahdal, Sandra Barman, Barrak Alahmad, Stella Dafka, Elisa Gallo, Joan Ballester, Mikhail Sofiev, Marina Romanello, Till Bärnighausen, Michael Gertz, and Joacim Rocklöv
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Summary:This study examines how climate-induced health risks influence negative sentiments on European social tweets from 2015 to 2022. Analyzing over 400 million tweets using NLP tools (NLTK, LIWC22) and spatial-temporal aggregation at the NUTS2 weekly level, we applied a Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and fused lasso regularization to capture sentiment fluctuations. Results show negative sentiments rise by up to 0.36% when maximum temperatures exceed 26.9°C and by 0.49% during severe droughts (SPI < −3.72). Elevated alder pollen counts (>135 grains/m3) also increase risk of negative sentiment by 0.21%, while temperatures below 2.9°C reduce it by 0.63%. No significant association was found with heat-related mortality or West Nile virus incidence. These findings suggest specific climate-related health factors - high temperatures, droughts, and pollen - trigger negative social media reactions, whereas others, such as mortality and infectious outbreaks, appear unnoticed in public sentiment.
Item Description:Online verfügbar: 3. November 2025, Artikelversion: 18. November 2025
Gesehen am 28.01.2026
Physical Description:Online Resource
ISSN:2589-0042
DOI:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113933

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