Expect the unexpected: augmented mixture models for black-hole-population studies

Context. Black-hole-population studies are currently performed either using astrophysically motivated models (informed but rigid in their functional forms) or via non-parametric methods (flexible, but not directly interpretable). Aims. In this paper, we present a statistical framework to complement...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Rinaldi, Stefano (Author)
Format: Article (Journal)
Language:English
Published: February 2026
In: Astronomy and astrophysics
Year: 2026, Volume: 706, Pages: 1-10
ISSN:1432-0746
DOI:10.1051/0004-6361/202557376
Online Access:Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202557376
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2026/02/aa57376-25/aa57376-25.html
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Author Notes:Stefano Rinaldi
Description
Summary:Context. Black-hole-population studies are currently performed either using astrophysically motivated models (informed but rigid in their functional forms) or via non-parametric methods (flexible, but not directly interpretable). Aims. In this paper, we present a statistical framework to complement the predictive power of astrophysically motivated models with the flexibility of non-parametric methods. Methods. Our method makes use of the Dirichlet distribution to robustly infer the relative weights of different models as well as of the Gibbs sampling approach to efficiently explore the parameter space. Results. After having validated our approach using simulated data, we applied this method to the binary black-hole mergers observed during the first three observing runs of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration using both phenomenological and astrophysical models as parametric models, finding results in agreement with the currently available literature.
Item Description:Online veröffentlicht: 20. Februar 2026
Gesehen am 17.03.2026
Physical Description:Online Resource
ISSN:1432-0746
DOI:10.1051/0004-6361/202557376