Time-dependent prediction models for individual prognosis of chronic postsurgical pain following knee replacement based on an extensive multivariable data set
(1) Background: Clinically useful prediction models for chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) in knee replacement (TKA) are lacking. (2) Methods: In our prospective, multicenter study, a wide-ranging set of 91 variables was collected from 933 TKA patients at eight time points up to one year after surgery...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Article (Journal) |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
| Publicado: |
1 February 2024
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| In: |
Journal of Clinical Medicine
Year: 2024, Volumen: 13, Número: 3, Pages: 1-23 |
| ISSN: | 2077-0383 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/jcm13030862 |
| Acceso en línea: | Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm13030862 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/13/3/862 
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| Notas de Autor: | Ulrich Betz, Michael Clarius, Manfred Krieger, Jürgen Konradi, Robert Kuchen, Lukas Schollenberger, Jörg Wiltink and Philipp Drees |
| Sumario: | (1) Background: Clinically useful prediction models for chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) in knee replacement (TKA) are lacking. (2) Methods: In our prospective, multicenter study, a wide-ranging set of 91 variables was collected from 933 TKA patients at eight time points up to one year after surgery. Based on this extensive data pool, simple and complex prediction models were calculated for the preoperative time point and for 6 months after surgery, using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) 1se and LASSO min, respectively. (3) Results: Using preoperative data only, LASSO 1se selected age, the Revised Life Orientation Test on pessimism, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC)—subscore pain and the Timed “Up and Go” Test for prediction, resulting in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.617 and a Brier score of 0.201, expressing low predictive power only. Using data up to 6 months after surgery, LASSO 1se included preoperative Patient Health Questionnaire-4, Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS)—subscore pain (pain) 3 months after surgery (month), WOMAC pain 3 and 6 months, KOOS subscore symptoms 6 months, KOOS subscore sport 6 months and KOOS subscore Quality of Life 6 months. This improved the predictive power to an intermediate one (AUC 0.755, Brier score 0.168). More complex models computed using LASSO min did little to further improve the strength of prediction. (4) Conclusions: Even using multiple variables and complex calculation methods, the possibility of individual prediction of CPSP after TKA remains limited. |
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| Notas: | Gesehen am 25.08.2026 |
| Descripción Física: | Online Resource |
| ISSN: | 2077-0383 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/jcm13030862 |