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Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters

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We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an inco...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Glas, Alexander (Author) , Hartmann, Matthias (Author)
Format: Book/Monograph Working Paper
Language:English
Published: Heidelberg University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics March 15, 2016
Series:Discussion paper series / Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics No. 612
In: Discussion paper series (no. 612)

DOI:10.11588/heidok.00020434
Subjects:
Arbeitspapier
Graue Literatur
Online Access:Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344
Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162955
Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00020434
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/20434
Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/20434/1/glas_hartmann_2016_dp612.pdf
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Author Notes:Alexander Glas and Matthias Hartmann
Description
Summary:We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual in ation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
Physical Description:Online Resource
DOI:10.11588/heidok.00020434

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