Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an inco...
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book/Monograph Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Heidelberg
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
March 15, 2016
|
| Series: | Discussion paper series / Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics
No. 612 |
| In: |
Discussion paper series (no. 612)
|
| DOI: | 10.11588/heidok.00020434 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344 Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162955 Resolving-System, kostenfrei, Volltext: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00020434 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/20434 Verlag, kostenfrei, Volltext: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/20434/1/glas_hartmann_2016_dp612.pdf |
| Author Notes: | Alexander Glas and Matthias Hartmann |
MARC
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| 520 | |a We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual in ation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods. | ||
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